Trump's Second Term: Will Manifold out-predict Nate Silver?
BitcoinOne-OffPolítica comercialPolítica dos EUAGeopolíticaRússia / Ucrânia2a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Manifold 60.3%
Manifold 60.3%Previsores
23
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 10 horas
Desatualizado28/01/25, 19:50 UTC2/02/29, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Regras
Resolves based on who has a lower Brier score (each prediction weighted equally).
- Locking in the percentages from this market on 2/9/2025 (giving Manifold a 2 week advantage from when the article was published) in order to give it enough time for volume.
- After that I will track results in a publicly available spreadsheet.
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict?play=true)Because of the advantage I ignored the follow predictions:
- #41 Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days.
- #43 Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations.
