Will any LLM produce a reasonable poker simulation, as judged by Nate Silver, by the end of 2028?
IAOne-Off2aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 56.2%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 11 minutos
22/05/25, 18:16 UTC31/12/28, 23:59 UTC
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https://open.substack.com/pub/natesilver/p/chatgpt-is-shockingly-bad-at-poker
- I'm expecting Nate to repeat this test.
- If he doesn't even try, this resolves NO.
- Update 2025-05-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified conditions regarding tool usage by the LLM, in line with Nate Silver's post about testing for general intelligence:
- The LLM must not use tools specifically designed for poker (e.g., dedicated poker solvers).
- The LLM may use generic tools, such as the ability to write and execute Python scripts.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will any LLM produce a reasonable poker simulation, as judged by Nate Silver, by the end of 2028??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 56% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will any LLM produce a reasonable poker simulation, as judged by Nate Silver, by the end of 2028? é resolvido?
- Will any LLM produce a reasonable poker simulation, as judged by Nate Silver, by the end of 2028? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2028.
- Como Will any LLM produce a reasonable poker simulation, as judged by Nate Silver, by the end of 2028? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: https://open.substack.com/pub/natesilver/p/chatgpt-is-shockingly-bad-at-poker