Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
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27
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Desatualizado5/06/24, 00:58 UTC1/01/31, 04:59 UTC
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In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner estimates that the largest training clusters will cost over one trillion dollars around 2030.
- Clarifications:
- $1T worth of computers and associated data center infrastructure (e.g. building, cooling, networking; does not include the cost of the power plant)
- Computers must be networked together and training one model.
- They do not need to synchronize weights at each gradient step.
- Value of data centers will be estimated with reasonable depreciation.
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
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- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
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- € 135,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 102,7 mil
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
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- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
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POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
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- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
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- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
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- Volume total
- € 325 mil
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de $1T AI training cluster before 2031??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 57% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando $1T AI training cluster before 2031? é resolvido?
- $1T AI training cluster before 2031? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2031.
- Como $1T AI training cluster before 2031? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner estimates that the largest training clusters will cost over one trillion dollars around 2030.