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In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner estimates that the largest training clusters will cost hundreds of billions of dollars around 2028.
- Clarifications:
- $100B worth of computers and associated data center infrastructure (e.g. building, cooling, networking; does not include the cost of the power plant)
- Computers must be networked together and training one model.
- They do not need to synchronize weights at each gradient step.
- Value of data centers will be estimated with reasonable depreciation.