Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]
GeopolíticaOne-OffCiênciaSociety & CultureManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 57%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado15/01/23, 08:44 UTC1/01/60, 08:00 UTC
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An attempt to recreate Levi's market subject to less personal judgement and bias.
- This market resolves based on the "popular science" consensus at the beginning of 2060.
- (i.e. the sort of thing reported in Wikipedia and posted on Twitter by the loudest scientists.) In the United States, or whatever culture is most similar to it if it's stopped existing by then.
- If I were to resolve this at the time of market creation, it would resolve to NO, since Wikipedia stated at that time:
- Today, the scientific consensus is that genetics does not explain differences in IQ test performance between groups, and that observed differences are environmental in origin.
- and other popular science resources tended to agree.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]?
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 57% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060] é resolvido?
- Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060] deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2060.
- Como Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060] é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: An attempt to recreate Levi's market subject to less personal judgement and bias.