Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 73.7%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado24/06/24, 21:42 UTC1/07/27, 21:59 UTC
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LLMs can distinguish their own output from the output of different LLMs and they have a preference for their own output, so it's technically feasible to manipulate the leaderboard by throwing an LLM at the chatbot arena to upvote its own completions.
- Has this happened yet? Will it happen soon?
- Resolves NO iff, before 2027/7/1, credible media reports state that the lmsys leaderboard has been manipulated with sockpuppet accounts / fraudulent voting.
- A statement coming directly from lmsys would also count.
- Resolves YES otherwise.
