Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 26 de out. de 2026, 05:03 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualNão 93.7%
Previsores
14
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 13 horas
Desatualizado25/03/26, 18:08 UTC31/12/27, 23:59 UTC
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Regras
This market will resolve to the percentage representing the opinion of the creator at the end of 2027 concerning whether Sora being shutdown was due to the AI bubble beginning to pop, or that it sparked a pop in the AI bubble.
- At the time of market creation, I would resolve to somewhere between 1 and 3%, representing my opinion that the AI bubble is not yet popped, that there may not even be an AI bubble to pop, and that Sora being shut down was likely due to compute and electricity bottlenecks while other research and profitable models were pursued.
- Update 2026-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For resolution, Sora's shutdown must be causally linked to the AI bubble popping — either as a cause or as an effect of the bubble beginning to pop.
- It is not sufficient for the shutdown to merely coincide with or occur during an already-unfolding bubble pop.
