Previsão da comunidade atual
By 12-31-2025 0%Líder entre 10 opções
Previsores
72
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 21 horas
Desatualizado26/10/25, 11:3831/12/27, 10:29
Tendências
Apenas fundos simulados, sem dinheiro realIsto não é aconselhamento financeiro
Resultado escolhido
By 9-30-20265%
Comparar plataformas· By 3-31-2028
Classificado por qualidade de mercado, depois liquidez e volume de 24h| Plataforma | Qualidade | Probabilidade | vs. referência | Volume 24h | Liquidez | Atualização | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketMelhor no geral72% de correspondência · verificado | Média | 16% | — | 6,2 € | 14,8 mil € | há 14 minutos | Abrir → |
| Manifold MarketsEsta página | — | 47% | — | — | — | há 21 horas |
Também disponível em Polymarket
AI bubble burst by which date?
5m
16%
-0.1%0%
+0.1%0%
60 • Qualidade médiaSpread moderadoLiquidez média
Volume total2,6 M €
Volume 24h6,2 €
POLYMARKETRegras
Will the AI bubble pop by X date?
- For the purpose of resolving this market, I will define the AI bubble popping as a reduction in the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) closing price of 35% or more within a period of 10 consecutive trading days.
- More formally, let pₜ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t, and let pₜ₊ₛ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t + s, such that 0 < s ≤ 10.
- A market will resolve to Yes if
- (pₜ - pₜ₊ₛ) / pₜ ≥ .35
- is satisfied by the stated date.
Os dados de comparação são apenas informativos. Preços e liquidez podem variar.
Tendência de volume
$709 de jul.4d de dados25 de jul.
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Will the AI bubble pop by X date?
- For the purpose of resolving this market, I will define the AI bubble popping as a reduction in the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) closing price of 35% or more within a period of 10 consecutive trading days.
- More formally, let pₜ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t, and let pₜ₊ₛ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t + s, such that 0 < s ≤ 10.
- A market will resolve to Yes if
- (pₜ - pₜ₊ₛ) / pₜ ≥ .35
- is satisfied by the stated date.