In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard?
17.8 pts (24h)IAOne-Off6aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual2026 97.8%+17.8ptLíder entre 8 opções
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39
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Variação 7d
+17.8 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 minutos
6/07/25, 10:341/01/33, 23:59
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Regras
SimpleBench is a 200‑item multiple‑choice test designed to probe everyday human reasoning that still eludes frontier LLMs, including spatio‑temporal reasoning, social intelligence and linguistic “trick” questions.
- Unlike most other benchmarks, humans still outperform AI on the SimpleBench.
- State of play:
- • Human reference accuracy: 83.7 %
- • 2025 AI accuracy (Gemini 2.5 Pro): 62.4 %
- Why this milestone matters
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard??
- A Manifold Markets cota 2026 em 98% em 4 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard? é resolvido?
- In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2033.
- Como In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: SimpleBench is a 200‑item multiple‑choice test designed to probe everyday human reasoning that still eludes frontier LLMs, including spatio‑temporal reasoning, social intelligence and linguistic “trick” questions.