Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Helped with >60% confidence 60.8%Líder entre 5 opções
Previsores
13
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 12 horas
Desatualizado30/03/23, 02:50 UTC1/01/31, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
In 2030, will Yudkowsky think his 2023 Time op-ed helped or harmed our chances?
Manifold MarketsWill humanity wipe out AI x-risk before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketTencent market share this week
KalshiRegras
https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/
- 90% chance of resolving to market probs; 10% chance (through RNG), I reach out to folks and look to average the opinions of a sample of AI x-risk ~macrostrategy folks (aiming for ~30% from frontier lab alignment and governance teams; ~15% each for relevant GovAI + Rethink Priorities + Open Philanthropy researchers; ~12.5% for each of Eliezer Yudkowsky and Buck Shlegris).
- Will make a good faith effort to iterate on resolution criteria in response to feedback during first week.
- Mar 30, 8:41am: In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed AI x-risk chances? → In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances?
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.6pt68.9%
- ChatGPT+0.4pt12.6%
- Gemini+1.6pt10.7%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 10 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 87,4 mil
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-11.0pt69%
- December 15,-8.5pt65%
- November 30,-5.0pt50%
+7 mais resultados
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+18.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 228,5 mil
- Volume 24h
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+13.0pt99%
- Above 24.7%+30.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%+1.0pt99%
+6 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T+0.1pt25%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt19.8%
- $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt16.7%
+7 mais resultados
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.55%99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.25%99%
+6 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 239,3 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 53,3 mil
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic lab leak by which date?
- Best AI this week
- When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances??
- A Manifold Markets cota Helped with >60% confidence em 61% em 20 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances? é resolvido?
- In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2031.
- Como In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/