Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Helped with >80% confidence 64.1%Líder entre 5 opções
Previsores
10
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 14 horas
Desatualizado30/03/23, 02:17 UTC1/01/31, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Regras
https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-not-enough/
Mercados abertos
AI
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+8.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 267,3 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 95,6 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.3pt69.2%
- ChatGPT-1.1pt13.5%
- Gemini+1.3pt10.6%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 10,1 mi
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-5.0pt72%
- December 15,+4.5pt65%
- November 30,-7.0pt44%
+7 mais resultados
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.65%+4.0pt99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.55%99%
+6 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 272 mil
- Volume 24h
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+8.0pt99%
- Above 24%+6.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%99%
+6 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 211,1 mil
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T-0.4pt25.3%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt20%
- $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt16.8%
+7 mais resultados
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best AI this week
- Next Claude Opus released on?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de In 2030, will Yudkowsky think his 2023 Time op-ed helped or harmed our chances??
- A Manifold Markets cota Helped with >80% confidence em 64% em 20 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando In 2030, will Yudkowsky think his 2023 Time op-ed helped or harmed our chances? é resolvido?
- In 2030, will Yudkowsky think his 2023 Time op-ed helped or harmed our chances? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2031.
- Como In 2030, will Yudkowsky think his 2023 Time op-ed helped or harmed our chances? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-not-enough/