If Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will there be a federal government shutdown in 2027?
EconomiaOne-OffPolíticaPolítica dos EUA1a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 56.5%
Previsores
7
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 13 horas
Desatualizado7/10/26, 02:55 UTC31/12/27, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Regras
Condition: Republicans control the U.S. Senate when the 120th Congress convenes on January 3, 2027: Republican senators hold at least 50 seats (with the Republican Vice President breaking ties).
- Otherwise this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if a lapse in federal appropriations causes a shutdown (agencies begin orderly shutdown procedures and furlough non-excepted employees) that starts at any time during calendar year 2027 (U.S. Eastern time), whether full or partial.
- A lapse that starts in 2026 and continues into 2027 does not count; one starting in 2027 counts even if brief.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Democrats win the Senate.
