If AI has an okay outcome because of a pause, will the exit strategy involve a new AI paradigm?
IAOne-Off11a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 66%
Previsores
3
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 17 horas
Desatualizado7/04/26, 12:13 UTC1/01/38, 13:13 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
If AGI has an okay outcome, will it be via the MIRI path of a pause ended with the help of some other technology?
Manifold MarketsIf a huge alignment effort is part of the reason for AI having an okay outcome, will it involve a new AI paradigm?
Manifold MarketsIf AI has an okay outcome because of a new paradigm, where did AI progress stall out?
Manifold MarketsIf AI has an okay outcome, was it because of humanity doing something beyond business-as-usual?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegras
This resolves N/A if ASI does not have an OK outcome or if a pause is not part of the reason, and otherwise YES if a new AI paradigm is part of the reason for ASI having an OK outcome, and NO if it is not.
- Definition of OK outcome:
- An outcome is "okay" if it gets at least 20% of the maximum attainable cosmopolitan value that could've been attained by a positive Singularity (a la full Coherent Extrapolated Volition done correctly), and existing humans don't suffer death or any other awful fates.
- A new AI paradigm is any AI paradigm that is not deep learning.
- This can include one that is already known to science - there would still be novelty in making it ASI-capable, when currently it only appears that deep learning can do that first.