If an AI winter happens before 2030, what is the most likely reason for it?

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Quais são as probabilidades atuais de If an AI winter happens before 2030, what is the most likely reason for it??

A Manifold Markets cota Legislation/treaties em 37.3% em 1 de novembro de 2026.

Quando If an AI winter happens before 2030, what is the most likely reason for it? é resolvido?

If an AI winter happens before 2030, what is the most likely reason for it? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2031.

Como If an AI winter happens before 2030, what is the most likely reason for it? é liquidado?

A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Multiple choice.

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POLYMARKET

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

• SpaceX-1.5pt56%
• Anthropic+1.3pt43%
• OpenAI+0.5pt1%

+9 mais resultados

Volume total

€ 6,5 mi

Volume 24h

€ 175,2 mil

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Gemini-4.3pt48.1%
• Claude+0.5pt39.5%
• ChatGPT-0.3pt

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Google-2.5pt54.5%
• Anthropic+2.0pt37.4%
• OpenAI-0.1pt6.1%

+12 mais resultados

KALSHI

Google market share this week

• Above 20.2%+4.0pt2.5%
• Above 17.3%+1.0pt1.5%
• Above 19.1%+1.0pt

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T-0.5pt29.5%
• $2.0–$2.25T-2.3pt19.1%
• $1.5–$1.75T+2.5pt18.1%

+7 mais resultados

KALSHI

OpenRouter token usage in Oct 26–Nov 1

• Above 187T tokens+2.0pt99%
• Above 186T tokens+1.0pt99.5%
• Above 183T tokens

• GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?
• When will Gemini Carbon be released?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• Best AI this week
• Anthropic IPO Date
• Anthropic IPO by which date?
• Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?
• Anthropic market share this week
• Gemini Carbon released by which date?
• Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Nov 1, 2026