Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualBecause a human directed it to do so 62.2%Líder entre 20 opções
Previsores
12
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 horas
Desatualizado25/07/26, 09:52 UTC31/12/30, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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Manifold MarketsRegras
Market is extended until an AI disaster event occurs.
- This market only pertains to the first event of its kind.
- 1,000 deaths need to be somewhat traceable to an event initiated/decided by an AI, or humans relying on an AI decisionmaking process.
- If an AI decisionmaker had decided to cut USAID, then the humans stopped doing the things associated with USAID, that would have counted, for example.
- Similarly, if an AI causes an outage which causes car crashes, that would count, even if it were indirect (i.e. all traffic lights in the world are converted to the same AI system, that system fails, and 1000 people die at intersections)
- Resolution criteria
