Manifold MarketsFechadoSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoEste mercado foi resolvido: Yes (14.3%)
Resolvido: 19 de ago. de 2026, 02:37
Resolução verificada pelo provedor
A CoinRithm tem evidência do provedor para o vencedor e o horário de liquidação deste mercado.
Previsão da comunidade atualNão 85.7%
Previsores
41
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado anteontem
Desatualizado26/04/26, 5:2219/08/26, 2:37
Linha do Tempo de Probabilidade
Yes14.3%
No85.7%
85.7%
14.3%
Regras
I remember on a recent podcast, I heard someone say "everyone will realize they're now living in the future when they start seeing robots walking past them in a few more months"
- This market resolves YES if I'm walking around and a humanoid robot casually crosses my path.
- Little sweeper robots are not enough, nor are the slightly more human looking ones at sushi restaurants
- I will not purposely seek one out, and I will not bet on this market
- Update 2026-04-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator does travel and plans to visit Las Vegas and other Tier 1 cities within the year, increasing the chances of encountering a humanoid robot.
- Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A humanoid robot must be able to move its arms to do things (not just a mannequin on wheels).
Mercados abertos
AI
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Mar 1, 2027+2.0pt93%
- Before Dec 1, 2026+4.0pt92%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+3.0pt92%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 1,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 158,8 mil
GEMINIBTC price on August 21
- $73,000 or above99%
- $74,500 or above99%
- $75,000 or above99%
+36 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 168,8 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 155,2 mil
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of August?
- Alibaba-1.9pt92%
- Company A50%
- Other50%
+22 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T-1.1pt97%
+10 mais resultados
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by __?
- December 31,89%
- October 31,+2.0pt83%
- October 15,-16.0pt53%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.8pt68.9%
- Grok-1.7pt10.7%
- ChatGPT-3.6pt8.7%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 7,9 mi
- Best AI this week
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- BMW Championship Winner
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- GPT-6 released by which date?
- XRP price on August 21
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- BTC price on August 31
- OpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- ZEC price on August 21
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Humanoid robot walking around me within a year??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 86% em 19 de agosto de 2026.
- Quando Humanoid robot walking around me within a year? é resolvido?
- Humanoid robot walking around me within a year? deverá ser resolvido em 19 de agosto de 2026.
- Como Humanoid robot walking around me within a year? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: I remember on a recent podcast, I heard someone say "everyone will realize they're now living in the future when they start seeing robots walking past them in a few more months"