Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualBetween 5e25 FLOP and 1.5e26 FLOP 75.5%+18.3ptLíder entre 6 opções
Previsores
19
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+18.3 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 7 horas
Desatualizado10/12/23, 20:17 UTC1/01/27, 22:59 UTC
Tendências
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This resolves as the bucket that contains the number of floating point operations (FLOP) used to train GPT-5
- FLOP may be performed at any precision (INT8, FP16, etc.)
- This resolves on the basis of the numbers reported by OpenAI, and, if they don't report this, on the basis of the first credible estimates reported in this database (details about the database may be found here)
- If GPT-5 is not released by EOY, 2027, this resolves ambiguously
- If the estimate is exactly on the edge of each range, we will resolve it as the largest of the two options