Manifold MarketsFechadoSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoEste mercado foi resolvido: 1 (97.6%)
Resolvido: 26 de jul. de 2026, 16:39
Resolução verificada pelo provedor
A CoinRithm tem evidência do provedor para o vencedor e o horário de liquidação deste mercado.
Previsão da comunidade atual
1 97.6%+2.4ptLíder entre 6 opções
Previsores
49
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 25 dias
Desatualizado2/01/24, 19:2026/07/26, 16:39
Linha do Tempo de Probabilidade
00.1%
197.6%
21%
3-40.5%
5-80.3%
>80.5%
97.6%
1%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Regras
AI achieves its first International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO) at least bronze medal in the calendar year X.
- In case of such a possibly contentious resolution I plan to poll Manifold Moderators and/or experts in the field whether they would agree with that resolution.
- Update 2026-07-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - 2024 DeepMind AI results: The creator does not plan to count the 2024 DeepMind AI results as a bronze medal (meaning 2024 is not year X), because the AI was not constrained by official competition criteria.
