Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualOther 84%Líder entre 7 opções
Previsores
33
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 14 horas
Desatualizado16/10/25, 09:50 UTC1/01/30, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Regras
Trigger for the market popping will be based on my subjective experience as a consultant dealing with tech start-ups and established businesses every day.
- Significant movement of tech stocks tied to an abandonment of AI, AI becoming a dirty word and everyone pivoting away from that branding (See: Web3.0), total loss of interest in AI in the venture capital space, this is a non-extensive list of things that would contribute to me considering the bubble popped.
- If, however, AI slowly fades into the background of everyone’s lives, with no significant evaluation adjustments associated with it failing in prominence, would not constitute a bubble popping (see also: the smartphone/app boom of the early to mid 2010s, no one gives a shit about apps any more, they are not cool, they are not the next big thing, but the hype died quietly and gracefully, and they just became a ubiquitous part of billions of people’s lives)
- If the market is still going strong in 2030, I will resolve this to no pop, otherwise, I’ll keep adding new options as required until then.
- Update: 2025-10-16:
- We already have naysayers claiming a hot startup from a couple months ago is dead, on account of them having made a lot of noise, but having a non-functional product they cannot maintain
Mercados abertos
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- € 224,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 160,5 mil
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,3 mi
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 344,9 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 mais resultados
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de [Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop??
- A Manifold Markets cota Other em 84% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando [Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop? é resolvido?
- [Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2030.
- Como [Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Trigger for the market popping will be based on my subjective experience as a consultant dealing with tech start-ups and established businesses every day.