Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 95.7%
Previsores
21
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 2 horas
Desatualizado18/11/25, 20:23 UTC30/11/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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Manifold MarketsRegras
This market resolves YES if, in November 2026, at least 2 of {OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind}'s mobile app lets the user close the app while the model is reasoning about an answer, and when the user later reopens the app, the model has continued/completed reasoning.
- Alternatively, if 2 or more of these 3 frontier labs require the mobile app user to keep the app open while the model is reasoning about an answer, or else it won't complete, then this market resolves NO.
Mercados abertos
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- September 22+72.4pt74.5%
- September 23+11.6pt13.7%
- September 24+3.8pt4.9%
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- Volume total
- € 269,8 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 199,9 mil
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- Zohran Mamdani-4.0pt27%
- Mark Carney-3.0pt19%
- Pope Leo XIV-7.0pt9%
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- € 1,3 mi
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- Volume total
- € 4,4 mi
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- € 107,5 mil
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- Claude-1.4pt70.3%
- ChatGPT-0.9pt13.9%
- Gemini-1.7pt7.9%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 10,3 mi
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-0.2pt99%
- OpenAI+0.6pt1%
- Meta0%
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- June 30, 2027-4.0pt7%
- December 31, 2026+0.2pt4%
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- € 85 mil
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- € 65,3 mil
- Best AI this week
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 95.7% em 22 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026? é resolvido?
- Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 30 de novembro de 2026.
- Como Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market resolves YES if, in November 2026, at least 2 of {OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind}'s mobile app lets the user close the app while the model is reasoning about an answer, and when the user later reopens the app, the model has continued/completed reasoning.