Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 79.9%
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Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 8 horas
Desatualizado28/07/23, 08:54 UTC1/01/43, 21:59 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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KalshiRegras
Matthew thinks there’s a decent chance that AGI supercharges growth by 2043.
- Ted thinks there’s very little chance that AGI supercharges growth by 2043.
- On Twitter, they agreed to a bet.
- Tweet thread.
- Economist Bryan Caplan says it's very unlikely, because "How is Gross World Product supposed to more than double in a year in a world where you have to wait a decade just to assemble the right building permits?"
- By January 1, 2043, real gross world product exceeds 130% of its previous yearly peak value for any single year
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.2pt69.2%
- ChatGPT+1.6pt14.4%
- Gemini-1.3pt9.6%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 10,2 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 125,4 mil
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+9.0pt78%
- December 15,+9.5pt74%
- November 30,+4.0pt54%
+7 mais resultados
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 1,9 mi
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+61.1pt87.9%
- No release by September 30-10.7pt4%
- September 22-26.9pt1%
+13 mais resultados
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 156,3 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 26,1 mil
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.0pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
- December 31, 2025-0.2pt0%
+1 mais resultados
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Explosive growth bet?
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 80% em 21 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Explosive growth bet é resolvido?
- Explosive growth bet deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2043.
- Como Explosive growth bet é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Matthew thinks there’s a decent chance that AGI supercharges growth by 2043.