Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 92.5%
Previsores
4
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 10 horas
Desatualizado15/06/26, 04:34 UTC1/01/27, 05:28 UTC
Tendências
Regras
By end of 2026, will I believe that there was meaningful election fraud in the 2026 LA mayoral primary? I would count paying people to vote but not paying them to register, intentional miscounting of votes / misreporting tallies, etc. I wouldn't count a few illegal immigrants voting, but I would count a coordinated effort to encourage them to, or >1000 doing so independently.
- The fraud doesn't have to have changed the outcome of the race, but it does have to have affected more than just a few (100?) votes.
Mercados abertos
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 606,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 721 mil
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt3%
+39 mais resultados
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt55.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.5pt42.6%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt1%
+16 mais resultados
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.5%
- Gavin Newsom13.6%
+45 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 183,4 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 411,2 mil
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+4.0pt73%
- New People (NL)-2.5pt23%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-1.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 mais resultados
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Putin out as President of Russia by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Did the 2026 LA mayoral primary have election fraud??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 93% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Did the 2026 LA mayoral primary have election fraud? é resolvido?
- Did the 2026 LA mayoral primary have election fraud? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Did the 2026 LA mayoral primary have election fraud? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: By end of 2026, will I believe that there was meaningful election fraud in the 2026 LA mayoral primary? I would count paying people to vote but not paying them to register, intentional miscounting of votes / misreporting tallies, etc. I wouldn't count a few illegal immigrants voting, but I would count a coordinated effort to encourage them to, or >1000 doing so independently.