Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Conditional on Mass Unemployment due to AI in the US, which happens first??

A Manifold Markets cota Universal Basic Income em 71.9% em 27 de outubro de 2026.

Conditional on Mass Unemployment due to AI in the US, which happens first?

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

Universal Basic Income 71.9%

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Variação 7d

0.0 pts

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 15 horas

Desatualizado

8/08/25, 03:07 UTC31/12/50, 06:17 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

not sure what the exact cutoff for Mass Unemployment is (10%, 20%, 50%) and for how long that rate needs to last

but I think maybe 20% for a year seems reasonable (assuming it’s due to AI automation rather than other factors e.g. pandemics, wars, etc.) the spirit of the market is when it’s normalized to not be employed long term.
for UBI to count, it needs to be on the order of $1000 a month (i.e. enough to cover living expenses) so comparable to Social Security
UBC has to be through the government (not the current equivalent of ChatGPT free tier) unless a corporation achieves an absurd amount of profit (e.g 1% of world gdp ~1T) and has a windfall or similar agreement to share their wealth with all citizens.
Currently don’t like how long the description is so I’m open to suggestions to simplify the the criteria but the main goal is to see which of UBI or UBC is more likely to actually happen given that they seem unlikely right now.
Should resolve to one of the 2 unless