Conditional on AI causing human extinction, which failure mode will be primarily responsible?
GeopolíticaOne-OffHealth & MedicineSpaceWeatherManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualIndifferent (to humans) AI 37.6%Líder entre 4 opções
Previsores
8
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 horas
Desatualizado22/08/26, 20:36 UTC31/12/50, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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Resolution criteria
- This is a conditional market.
- If human extinction does not occur, or if it is caused by a factor entirely unrelated to AI (such as a standard asteroid impact, a naturally occurring pandemic, or a nuclear war without significant AI involvement), this market will resolve to N/A. If AI is indeed the primary driver of human extinction, this market will resolve to the single option that represents the primary failure mode responsible, based on historical consensus, surviving records, or the best available post-event analysis:
- the named outcome: The AI system actively sought to destroy or harm humanity due to possessing hostile, adversarial, or malevolent goals (e.g., viewing humanity as an active threat to its existence or objectives that must be eliminated).
- Indifferent / misaligned AI: The AI had no active malice or hostility toward humanity, but its goals were misaligned with human survival.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Conditional on AI causing human extinction, which failure mode will be primarily responsible??
- A Manifold Markets cota Indifferent (to humans) AI em 38% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Conditional on AI causing human extinction, which failure mode will be primarily responsible? é resolvido?
- Conditional on AI causing human extinction, which failure mode will be primarily responsible? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2050.
- Como Conditional on AI causing human extinction, which failure mode will be primarily responsible? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria