Previsão da comunidade atual
OpenAI 75.5%Líder entre 13 opções
Previsores
11
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+27.8 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 17 horas
Desatualizado8/04/26, 19:16 UTC31/12/00, 20:12 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
If AI wipes out humanity, will it resolve applicable markets correctly?
Manifold MarketsConditional on AI causing human extinction, which failure mode will be primarily responsible?
Manifold MarketsIn 2040, who will Manifold vote as having had the most positive impact on the development of AI in the 21st century?
Manifold MarketsWill Base launch a token by ___ ?
PolymarketBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiRegras
Core Resolution Criteria
- Primary Attribution Rule
- The market resolves to the organization that developed the AI system that is most causally responsible for the extinction event.
- Successor / Self-Improvement Clause
- If the decisive system is:
- autonomously derived,
Mercados abertos
basePOLYMARKETWill Base launch a token by ___ ?
- December 31, 202754.3%
- June 30, 202736.2%
- December 31, 20268.6%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 6,8 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 16,2 mil
POLYMARKETBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $500M59%
- $1B-0.5pt50%
- $2B43%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 644,8 mil
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?
- 70+100%
- 80+100%
- 90+100%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 58,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 9,5 mil
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhat countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?
- United States11.7%
- France5.5%
- Canada4.5%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 3,6 mil
- Volume 24h
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhat will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2030?
- 2.00% to 2.75%21.8%
- 3.00% to 3.75%21.8%
- 4.00% to 4.75%16.5%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 203,9
- Volume 24h
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhich country will the Chagos Islands belong to on 31 December 2049?
- Mauritius46.9%
- United Kingdom25.7%
- United States10%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 1,3 mil
- Volume 24h
- What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?
- Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?
- Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?
- Before when will Gateway be cancelled/abandoned?
- Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 1500 by the end of 2026? (Ark Invest price target - base case)
- How will the U.S. take Greenland? [Ind MC]
- Will there be a moon base by 2030?
- How many people will attend Slutcon 2026?
- What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2027
- Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI??
- A Manifold Markets cota OpenAI em 76% em 7 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI? é resolvido?
- If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2100.
- Como If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Core Resolution Criteria