Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualMenlo Park, CA 27.8%Líder entre 8 opções
Previsores
13
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 20 horas
Desatualizado24/04/26, 18:30 UTC1/10/26, 00:00 UTC
Tendências
0.5%
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PolymarketRegras
Resolves to the city where I most sleep the most nights during the month of October.
- The market resolves equally among tied cities.
- For context, this definition would have resolved "the named outcome" (where my parents live) for the vast majority of my childhood, and "the named outcome" for most of my college months.
- I strongly expect it to resolve "the named outcome" for July and August 2026, where I have plans to sublet for my MIRI job.
- This definition does not always align with where I actually live.
- It would have resolved "Portland, OR" during July 2018 when I was at sleepaway camp, probably "St. Louis, MO" in July 2025 (Epsilon Camp counselor), and I think "Ardsley, NY" during August 2025 (when I slept in like 9 different cities).
Mercados abertos
basePOLYMARKETWill Base launch a token by ___ ?
- December 31, 2027+5.5pt56.8%
- June 30, 202734.2%
- December 31, 20268.1%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 6,8 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 79,5 mil
POLYMARKETBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $500M-0.5pt59%
- $1B-4.0pt46%
- $2B43%
+7 mais resultados
MANIFOLD MARKETSPrice of Apple M5 Ultra Studio 512gb on Release in 2026
- $12,000-$13,999+7.5pt32.2%
- $14,000-$15,999+4.1pt18.1%
- $10,000-$11,999+3.7pt16.9%
+3 mais resultados
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?
- 70+100%
- 80+100%
- 90+100%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 58,6 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 389,7
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)
- No94.4%
- Yes5.6%
- Volume total
- € 80 mil
- Volume 24h
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many regular-season wins will the New York Giants have in the 2026 NFL season under Jim Harbaugh?
- 5–7 wins40.2%
- 8-9 wins30.2%
- 10-11 wins13.2%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 97,1
- Volume 24h
- Which job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy]
- When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?
- What is the base of the next nice number?
- What countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?
- What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2030?
- Which country will the Chagos Islands belong to on 31 December 2049?
- What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?
- Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?
- If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?
- Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Where will I live in October 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota Menlo Park, CA em 28% em 9 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Where will I live in October 2026? é resolvido?
- Where will I live in October 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de outubro de 2026.
- Como Where will I live in October 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves to the city where I most sleep the most nights during the month of October.