Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualMenlo Park, CA 72%-0.2ptLíder entre 8 opções
Previsores
16
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
-0.2 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 horas
Desatualizado24/04/26, 18:30 UTC1/11/26, 00:00 UTC
Tendências
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PolymarketRegras
Resolves to the city where I most sleep the most nights during the month of October.
- The market resolves equally among tied cities.
- For context, this definition would have resolved "the named outcome" (where my parents live) for the vast majority of my childhood, and "the named outcome" for most of my college months.
- I strongly expect it to resolve "the named outcome" for July and August 2026, where I have plans to sublet for my MIRI job.
- This definition does not always align with where I actually live.
- It would have resolved "Portland, OR" during July 2018 when I was at sleepaway camp, probably "St. Louis, MO" in July 2025 (Epsilon Camp counselor), and I think "Ardsley, NY" during August 2025 (when I slept in like 9 different cities).