Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualBefore 2050 65.2%Líder entre 9 opções
Previsores
81
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 19 horas
Desatualizado18/10/25, 21:15 UTC1/01/50, 22:13 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza, Palestine?
Manifold MarketsIf the ICJ rules Israel is not committing genocide in Gaza, will this appear on Wikipedia's main page within 30 days?
Manifold MarketsGaza genocide still labeled as genocide by Wikipedia in 2030?
Manifold MarketsBy when will the Wikipedia page "Gaza genocide" be deleted or retitled?
Manifold MarketsWill an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
PolymarketForeign intervention in Gaza by which date?
PolymarketRegras
Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve when Wikipedia stops identifying Gaza as a genocide for a 168 hour period.
- Then all dates after the current date resolve YES and all dates before resolve NO.
- Specifically, the market will resolve if:
- The English Wikipedia article currently titled "Gaza genocide" is either deleted, renamed to a title that does not include "genocide" (e.g., "Gaza conflict," "Israel-Hamas war allegations," or similar without the term "genocide" directly asserting it), or its lead section (the first paragraph) is fundamentally altered to remove the assertion that the conflict is a genocide.
- This needs to hold for a week.