Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual2050-12-31 71.9%Líder entre 4 opções
Previsores
5
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 2 horas
Desatualizado30/08/26, 02:59 UTC31/12/50, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will SpaceX be the customer for more than half of orbital payload mass in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Starship first launch with useful payload?
Manifold MarketsWill a laser lift a payload to space before 2040?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
LimitlessWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiRegras
Space elevators, launch loops, mass drivers, spin launch, whatever.
- Anything that gets at least 1/3 of its delta-V from something not a rocket counts.
- From the surface of the Earth, Moon, Mars, or anything else with at least the Moon's escape velocity, to orbit or escape.
- Payload must survive enough to transmit from orbit or do something useful.
Mercados abertos
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt88%
- OpenAI-1.7pt10%
- Google2%
+18 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,2 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 85,3 mil
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- Yes59.4%
- No40.6%
- Volume total
- € 153,6 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 39,2 mil
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+3.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 mais resultados
POLYMARKETSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
- October 3197%
- Successful splash down?84%
- September 30-5.3pt83%
+8 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 409,9 mil
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.3pt59.8%
- SpaceX-4.5pt38.1%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 mais resultados
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-1.0pt84%
- Above 9-27.0pt46%
- Above 10-8.0pt23%
+8 mais resultados
- Volume total
- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Next Grok Model (4.7+) released on?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de By when will the first non-traditional launch of an orbital payload happen??
- A Manifold Markets cota 2050-12-31 em 72% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando By when will the first non-traditional launch of an orbital payload happen? é resolvido?
- By when will the first non-traditional launch of an orbital payload happen? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2050.
- Como By when will the first non-traditional launch of an orbital payload happen? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Space elevators, launch loops, mass drivers, spin launch, whatever.