Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualBefore 2038 80%Líder entre 10 opções
Previsores
5
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+30.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 minutos
9/09/26, 18:12 UTC1/01/40, 08:00 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Are almost all women into women? (will it replicate?)
Manifold MarketsWill Al take 50% of human jobs before 2045?
Manifold MarketsWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill Glacier National Park set a visitation record in 2026?
KalshiTurner Prize 2026 Winner
PolymarketRegras
I'm trying to point at jobs that can "in theory" be done by a sufficiently good multi-modal LLM.
- If the job requires only the production of digital artifacts, it counts.
- On the other hand I'm excluding:
- Jobs that require physical interaction with the world
- Jobs that depend on significant interaction with humans external to the organization
- In other words: I'm not asking when robotics will be solved, and I'm not asking when humans will be comfortable interacting with an AI.
Mercados abertos
AIPOLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+24.5pt89%
- 2026+59.0pt82%
- September 30, 2026+56.0pt63%
- Volume total
- € 93,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 59,5 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.9pt58.1%
- ChatGPT+1.0pt22.9%
- Grok+3.2pt8.6%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,2 mi
POLYMARKETOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+53.0pt93%
- 2026+53.5pt73%
- September 30, 2026+51.5pt57%
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.25%-7.0pt88%
- Above 2.45%79%
- Above 2.6%+16.0pt56%
+6 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 60,8 mil
POLYMARKETWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Hodge Conjecture50.5%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer27.1%
- No solution by Dec 31, 202710.3%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 32,3 mil
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+1.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,4 mi
- Tencent market share this week
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de By what year will almost all "LLM-domain" jobs be automatable??
- A Manifold Markets cota Before 2038 em 80% em 10 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando By what year will almost all "LLM-domain" jobs be automatable? é resolvido?
- By what year will almost all "LLM-domain" jobs be automatable? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2040.
- Como By what year will almost all "LLM-domain" jobs be automatable? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: I'm trying to point at jobs that can "in theory" be done by a sufficiently good multi-modal LLM.