Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Sim 70.5%
Previsores
139
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 14 horas
Desatualizado4/05/23, 00:55 UTC31/12/26, 07:59 UTC
Tendências
Regras
As mentioned in this ACX article, there's this study that shows that pretty much every woman exhibits genital arousal towards women.
- There's NO WAY this is true it's UNFAIR if it is I should've been asking girls out WAYYYY more like wtf have I been doing all this time
- Resolves YES if this paper replicates, NO if it gets retracted/debunked, N/A if that's not what this paper says
Mercados abertos
Science
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 226,3 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 125,2 mil
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 mais resultados
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 28,6 mi
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 108,3 mil
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Volume total
- € 1,6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 5,2 mil
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 mais resultados
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Are almost all women into women? (will it replicate?)?
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 71% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Are almost all women into women? (will it replicate?) é resolvido?
- Are almost all women into women? (will it replicate?) deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Are almost all women into women? (will it replicate?) é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: As mentioned in this ACX article, there's this study that shows that pretty much every woman exhibits genital arousal towards women.