Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual01.01.2030 80.5%Líder entre 9 opções
Previsores
7
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+11.6 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 minutos
10/10/25, 11:001/01/30, 23:59
Tendências
0%
Regras
This market is part of the paper: A Concrete Roadmap towards Safety Cases based on Chain-of-Thought Monitoring
- This market resolves based on whether, at each specified date, all SOTA reasoning models use non-token-based (’neuralese’) reasoning.
- Neuralese Reasoning Definition
- A reasoning model uses "neuralese reasoning" if the architecture allows some activation to sequentially go through at least some part of the network an arbitrary number of times without at some point being projected from a continuous multidimensional activation into a discrete state (like token IDs).
- Specific Resolution Cases
- Counts as neuralese reasoning: Tokens are generated but there is also a residual connection that feeds back continuous activations into earlier layers
Mercados abertos
AI
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- September 30-0.1pt99%
- October 31+0.6pt99%
- September 15+0.6pt98%
+8 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 1 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 457,4 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-4.0pt59.2%
- ChatGPT-1.3pt24.3%
- Grok+0.9pt7.8%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 8,7 mi
POLYMARKETGPT-6 released by which date?
- October 31,+9.1pt100%
- November 30,+6.8pt100%
- December 31,+5.5pt100%
+10 mais resultados
POLYMARKETOpenAI's Astra released on?
- September 4+27.7pt37%
- September 17+22.2pt23%
- September 24+22.1pt23%
+27 mais resultados
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude-10.0pt76.5%
- ChatGPT+5.0pt16.7%
- Gemini+2.0pt2.9%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 149,2 mil
KALSHIWhen will OpenAI release GPT-6?
- Before Sep 16, 2026+14.0pt99%
- Before Oct 1, 2026+9.0pt99%
- Before Nov 1, 2026+6.0pt99%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- Which week will OpenAI release Astra?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- When will OpenAI release Astra?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- AI capability growth this year?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de By what date will all SOTA reasoning models use neuralese??
- A Manifold Markets cota 01.01.2030 em 81% em 4 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando By what date will all SOTA reasoning models use neuralese? é resolvido?
- By what date will all SOTA reasoning models use neuralese? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2030.
- Como By what date will all SOTA reasoning models use neuralese? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market is part of the paper: A Concrete Roadmap towards Safety Cases based on Chain-of-Thought Monitoring