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  3. By what date will all SOTA reasoning models use neuralese?
Manifold Markets

By what date will all SOTA reasoning models use neuralese?

One-OffIATecnologiaCiência3a
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSem KYC
Previsão da comunidade atual
Manifold Markets
01.01.2026 0%
Líder entre 9 opções
Previsores

4

Tipo de pergunta

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 4 dias

Desatualizado
10/10/25, 11:001/01/30, 23:59

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

01.07.20266%

Regras

This market is part of the paper: A Concrete Roadmap towards Safety Cases based on Chain-of-Thought Monitoring

Manifold Markets
  • This market resolves based on whether, at each specified date, all SOTA reasoning models use non-token-based (’neuralese’) reasoning.
  • Neuralese Reasoning Definition
  • A reasoning model uses "neuralese reasoning" if the architecture allows some activation to sequentially go through at least some part of the network an arbitrary number of times without at some point being projected from a continuous multidimensional activation into a discrete state (like token IDs).
  • Specific Resolution Cases
  • Counts as neuralese reasoning: Tokens are generated but there is also a residual connection that feeds back continuous activations into earlier layers

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Regras

This market is part of the paper: A Concrete Roadmap towards Safety Cases based on Chain-of-Thought Monitoring

Manifold Markets
  • This market resolves based on whether, at each specified date, all SOTA reasoning models use non-token-based (’neuralese’) reasoning.
  • Neuralese Reasoning Definition
  • A reasoning model uses "neuralese reasoning" if the architecture allows some activation to sequentially go through at least some part of the network an arbitrary number of times without at some point being projected from a continuous multidimensional activation into a discrete state (like token IDs).
  • Specific Resolution Cases
  • Counts as neuralese reasoning: Tokens are generated but there is also a residual connection that feeds back continuous activations into earlier layers