By what date will all state-of-the-art general-purpose AI systems not be reasoning models?
IAOne-Off3a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual01.01.2030 59%Líder entre 9 opções
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Atualizado há 11 horas
Desatualizado10/10/25, 10:56 UTC1/01/30, 11:23 UTC
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This market is part of the paper: A Concrete Roadmap towards Safety Cases based on Chain-of-Thought Monitoring
- This market resolves based on whether, at each specified date, all models considered SOTA are not reasoning models.
- Reasoning Model Definition
- A "reasoning model" must meet all of the following criteria:
- It is a Language Model - The system must be able to input and output language.
- As an example of what would not count: AlphaGo
