Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 96.1%
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214
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 15 horas
Desatualizado17/11/23, 12:46 UTC1/01/27, 04:59 UTC
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Formalization of: https://twitter.com/robbensinger/status/1725286678401835210.
- 'Hit a wall' means roughly as I understand it that rate of advancement of underlying capabilities has slowed greatly compared to the pace of 2021-2023.
- Resolution will be my evaluation of consensus opinion.
- Best available form of polling will be used if needed.
- I will ask about the term 'hit a wall' and noting how I understand its meaning, in that case.
- Note that this measures gains in the underlying capabilities of the AI systems.
Mercados abertos
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- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
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- Claude+3.6pt62%
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- Grok-0.2pt8%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 96% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025? é resolvido?
- By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Formalization of: https://twitter.com/robbensinger/status/1725286678401835210.