In 2026, will it be apparent deep learning hit a non-transient wall at some point in 2023-2025?
IAOne-Off3mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 79.2%
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Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado17/11/23, 02:33 UTC1/02/27, 07:59 UTC
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Quoting the following tweet:
- What's your rough probability on "In 2026, it will seem as though deep learning hit a non-transient wall at some point in 2023-2025, after the relatively impressive results from GPT-4?"
- In January 2027, I will compare the benchmarks of the best deep learning model of 2026 to the benchmarks of the best model of 2025.
- If it's apparent that no significant progress has been made in 2026, I will resolve this question to No. Otherwise I will resolve it to Yes.
- The definition of "significant" will depend on what the best deep learning benchmarks of 2026 are and thus cannot be provided in advance.
- In case of a disagreement among market participants I will seek the opinion of well known AI experts in helping resolve this.
