Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Another Manifold user charged with homicide before 2027??

A Manifold Markets cota No em 83.8% em 25 de outubro de 2026.

Another Manifold user charged with homicide before 2027?

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

Não 83.8%

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

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Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 1 hora

Atrasado

26/06/25, 05:26 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

One Manifold user has been charged with homicide so far that we know of.

Will there be another before 2027?
Update 2025-06-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed that the first Manifold user charged with homicide, which serves as the premise for this market, is Luigi Mangione.
Update 2025-06-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that for the market to resolve to YES, two conditions must be met:
The creator or the Manifold community must become aware of the homicide charge.
The charge must be able to be linked to a specific Manifold user account.