Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 58.5%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 12 minutos
19/05/25, 12:14 UTC30/06/27, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegras
Hinge #2 bet proposed in this post: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/45oxYwysFiqwfKCcN/untitled-draft-keg3
- "If the fastest models trained in mid‑2027 require one‑quarter the elapsed time of equally large runs eighteen months earlier without a node shrink below four nanometres, that will be strong evidence that software‑only acceleration is real, and is not highly bottlenecked by compute or real-world experiments slowing the AI researchers down."
- The other bets:
- #1: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/nvidias-datacenter-revenue-and-bigt
- #3: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/revenue-per-deployed-h100-exceeds-1
- #4: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/g7-country-manages-three-years-of-6
