Manifold MarketsFechadoSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoEste mercado foi resolvido: No (97.4%)
Resolvido: 11 de out. de 2026, 19:33
Resolução verificada pelo provedor
A CoinRithm tem evidência do provedor para o vencedor e o horário de liquidação deste mercado.
Aviso de qualidade dos dadosDados desatualizados
Dados de 6 de out. de 2026, 17:55 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Tendências
Ganhou
Perdeu
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2027?
Manifold MarketsAI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2028?
Manifold MarketsAI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 7 minutes before 2028?
Manifold MarketsAI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2029?
Manifold MarketsAll Millennium Prize Problems solved before 2030?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
PolymarketRegras
Jack Clark predicts YES: https://importai.substack.com/p/import-ai-439-ai-kernels-decentralized.
- Resolves to YES if any LLM released prior to 1 Oct 2026 exceeds the human baseline of 61.77% on https://posttrainbench.com/.
- Reasonable time (to at most 1 Nov) will be given after the deadline in case a model is released close to the deadline that might do it.
- Result does not have to appear on posttrainbench.com per se but needs to be credible, and not contradicted by the website.
- Resolves to NO if this does not occur.
- (Identical market to: source market)
