Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 82%
Previsores
3
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 20 horas
Desatualizado27/08/26, 10:31 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if an agreement or treaty between Iran and Oman is finalized and implemented that prohibits military vessels from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which legally or physically prevents U.S. military vessels (including the 5th Fleet) from passing through the strait to enter or exit the Persian Gulf.
- This market resolves to NO if:
- No such treaty is finalized and implemented by the cutoff date.
- A treaty is finalized but does not ban U.S. military vessels from transiting the strait.
- The blockade is lifted and military transit resumes without such restrictions.
Mercados abertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-6.0pt74%
- September 18-6.0pt69%
- September 11-10.0pt61%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 1 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 363 mil
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)+0.3pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.3pt3%
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+3.0pt79.2%
- Yes-3.0pt20.8%
- Volume total
- € 9,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 245,5 mil
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-1.0pt29.1%
- September 30-1.0pt12%
+17 mais resultados
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 mais resultados
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 301%
- July 310%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 62,8 mi
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de 5th Fleet Stranded as result of Iran Deal??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 82% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando 5th Fleet Stranded as result of Iran Deal? é resolvido?
- 5th Fleet Stranded as result of Iran Deal? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como 5th Fleet Stranded as result of Iran Deal? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria