2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
2.9 pts (24h)PolíticaOne-OffEleições de meio de mandato dos EUA 2026Política dos EUAEleição3m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualDemocrats, ≥5% 90%+2.9ptLíder entre 12 opções
Previsores
5
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+40.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 14 horas
Desatualizado25/10/26, 20:10 UTC3/02/27, 15:00 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
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PolymarketIf Musk registers a new party before the 2026 midterms, what % of House votes will it win?
Manifold MarketsRegras
Mirrors this Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhousepopvotemargind/kxhousepopvotemargind/kxhousepopvotemargind-26nov03/kxhousepopvotemargind-26nov03-al10
- Resolves according to Kalshi's final result, using Kalshi's rules for this market.
- Kalshi's rules: If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 10 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.