2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
3.0 pts (24h)PolíticaOne-OffPolítica dos EUAEleiçãoEleições de meio de mandato dos EUA 20263m
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Democrats, ≥2% · —
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Preço registado
Democrats, ≥2% 95.5%Líder entre 13 opções
Democrats, ≥2% 95.5%Qualidade do mercado
63 / 100
Qualidade médiaVolume 24h
2,3 mil €
Contratos em aberto
28,4 mil US$
Contratos em aberto: altoCompra / Venda
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Democrats, ≥2%Spread
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 minutos
15/09/26, 16:00 UTC3/02/27, 15:00 UTC
O gráfico e as variações mostram probabilidades históricas guardadas, não o livro selecionado em tempo real.
Tendências
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Condições da plataforma
Fonte: Kalshi
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- Encerramento antecipado:
- Sim
- Prazo de liquidação:
- 30m (informativo)
Profundidade de mercado · Democrats, ≥2%
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Manifold MarketsIf Musk registers a new party before the 2026 midterms, what % of House votes will it win?
Manifold MarketsRegras
If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 10 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote.
Regras de cada resultado
- Democrats, ≥2%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 2 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥4%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 4 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥5%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 5 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥6%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 6 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥7%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 7 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥8%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 8 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥9%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 9 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥10%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 10 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥11%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 11 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥12%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 12 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥13%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 13 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥14%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 14 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥16%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 16 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.