2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
One-OffPolíticaEleiçãoPolítica dos EUAEleições de meio de mandato dos EUA 20261a
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Democrats, 8 to 10% · —
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Democrats, 8 to 10% 26.5%Líder entre 10 opções
Democrats, 8 to 10% 26.5%Qualidade do mercado
93 / 100
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138,5 mil €
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2,6 M US$
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Democrats, 8 to 10%Spread
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 12 minutos
4/02/26, 15:00 UTC3/11/27, 13:00 UTC
O gráfico e as variações mostram probabilidades históricas guardadas, não o livro selecionado em tempo real.
Tendências
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Condições da plataforma
Fonte: Kalshi
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- Encerramento antecipado:
- Sim
- Prazo de liquidação:
- 30m (informativo)
Profundidade de mercado · Democrats, 8 to 10%
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Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot?
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Kalshi2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
Polymarket2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
Manifold MarketsGeneric Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (10/23-10/30)?
KalshiWill there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling?
Manifold MarketsRegras
If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 8 and 10 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida via:the Clerk of the House
- The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
Regras de cada resultado
- Democrats, 8 to 10%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 8 and 10 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 10 to 12%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 10 and 12 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 6 to 8%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 6 and 8 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 12 to 14%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 12 and 14 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 4 to 6%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 4 and 6 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Republicans win
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 14 to 16%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 14 and 16 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 2 to 4%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 2 and 4 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 16% and above
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 16 and 100 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 0 to 2%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 0 and 2 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
