2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
One-OffPolíticaEleiçãoUS Politics1a
KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosCalibração aproximadaProbabilidade implícita atualDemocrats, 8 to 10% 21.8%-1.0ptLíder entre 10 opções
Qualidade do mercado
79 / 100
Alta qualidadeVolume 24h
5,7 mil €
Liquidez
431,4 mil €
Alta liquidezCompra / Venda
21.0% / 22.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Spread apertadoDados do mercado
Atualizado há 24 minutos
4/02/26, 15:003/11/27, 13:59
Tendências
Apenas fundos simulados, sem dinheiro realIsto não é aconselhamento financeiro
Resultado escolhido
Democrats, 6 to 8%22%
Comparar plataformas· Democrats, 8 to 10%
Classificado por qualidade de mercado, depois liquidez e volume de 24h| Plataforma | Qualidade | Probabilidade | vs. referência | Volume 24h | Liquidez | Atualização | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiEsta páginaMelhor no geral | Alta | 24% | — | 5,7 mil € | 431,4 mil € | há 24 minutos | |
 PredictIt87% de correspondência · verificado | — | 25% | — | — | — | há 24 minutos | Abrir → |
Também disponível em PredictIt
What will be the national vote margin in the 2026 House midterms?
8m
25%
25%
0%
+5 mais resultados
Retail prediction exchange
PREDICTITRegras
If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S.
- House of Representatives national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election.
- The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
- No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.
Os dados de comparação são apenas informativos. Preços e liquidez podem variar.
Grandes negociações
$3.4k98.2%KALSHIDemocrats, 0 to 2% — Nohá 8 dias
KALSHIDemocrats, 0 to 2% — Nohá 8 dias$2.0k98.5%KALSHIDemocrats, 0 to 2% — Nohá 8 dias
KALSHIDemocrats, 0 to 2% — Nohá 8 dias$1.2k98.5%KALSHIDemocrats, 0 to 2% — Nohá 8 dias
KALSHIDemocrats, 0 to 2% — Nohá 8 diasTendência de volume
$6.5k2 de jul.27d de dados28 de jul.
Mercados Relacionados
TN-04 House Election Winner
8,1 mil €Republican Party: 92%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Blue tsunami in 2026?
7,2 mil €Sim: 37%KALSHI
KALSHI
Which party will win the House in 2026?
6,4 mil €Democratic Party: 86%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
CA-45 House Election Winner
5,1 mil €Democratic Party: 84%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will Trump do anything this week? (7/26-8/1)
4,1 mil €At least 2: 90%KALSHI
KALSHI
Blue wave in 2026?
3,6 mil €Sim: 75%KALSHI
KALSHIAtivos nestes tópicos
Notícias Relacionadas
Polymarket odds swing: Eizenkot hits 51% as Israel campaign kicks offBlockchain.News
Polymarket: Vance leads 2028 at 19.85% as pricing trend softensBlockchain.News
White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealCoindesk
Senate nears bipartisan CLARITY Act deal after ethics breakthroughCrypto News
White House agrees to ethics provisions in market structure billCointelegraph
Polymarket odds show Vance at 19.85% as Epstein files critique hits tapeBlockchain.NewsRegras
If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S.
- House of Representatives national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election.
- The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
- No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.