2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
One-OffPolíticaEleiçãoUS Politics1a
KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosCalibração aproximadaProbabilidade implícita atualDemocrats, 8 to 10% 22.1%Líder entre 10 opções
Qualidade do mercado
77 / 100
Alta qualidadeVolume 24h
5,7 mil €
Liquidez
430,7 mil €
Alta liquidezCompra / Venda
21.0% / 22.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Spread apertadoDados do mercado
Atualizado há 21 minutos
4/02/26, 15:003/11/27, 13:59
Tendências
Apenas fundos simulados, sem dinheiro realIsto não é aconselhamento financeiro
Resultado escolhido
Democrats, 6 to 8%22%
Comparar plataformas· Democrats, 8 to 10%
Classificado por qualidade de mercado, depois liquidez e volume de 24h| Plataforma | Qualidade | Probabilidade | vs. referência | Volume 24h | Liquidez | Atualização | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiEsta páginaMelhor no geral | Alta | 25% | — | 5,7 mil € | 430,7 mil € | há 21 minutos | |
 PredictIt87% de correspondência · verificado | — | 25% | — | — | — | há 21 minutos | Abrir → |
Também disponível em PredictIt
What will be the national vote margin in the 2026 House midterms?
8m
25%
25%
0%
+5 mais resultados
Retail prediction exchange
PREDICTITRegras
If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S.
- House of Representatives national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election.
- The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
- No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.
Os dados de comparação são apenas informativos. Preços e liquidez podem variar.
Grandes negociações
$3.4k98.2%KALSHIDemocrats, 0 to 2% — Nohá 8 dias
KALSHIDemocrats, 0 to 2% — Nohá 8 dias$2.0k98.5%KALSHIDemocrats, 0 to 2% — Nohá 8 dias
KALSHIDemocrats, 0 to 2% — Nohá 8 dias$1.2k98.5%KALSHIDemocrats, 0 to 2% — Nohá 8 dias
KALSHIDemocrats, 0 to 2% — Nohá 8 diasTendência de volume
$6.5k2 de jul.27d de dados28 de jul.
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If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S.
- House of Representatives national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election.
- The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
- No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.