California's 4th District margin of victory
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica dos EUAEleiçãoEleições de meio de mandato dos EUA 202612m
KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatórioDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPonto médio do livro selecionado
Mike Thompson, 20+ pts · —
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Preço registado
Mike Thompson, 20+ pts 15.5%Líder entre 8 opções
Mike Thompson, 20+ pts 15.5%Qualidade do mercado
24 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
154,3 €
Contratos em aberto
3,5 mil US$
Contratos em aberto: médioCompra / Venda
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Mike Thompson, 20+ ptsSpread
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 59 minutos
Atrasado6/11/26, 05:26 UTC3/11/27, 14:00 UTC
O gráfico e as variações mostram probabilidades históricas guardadas, não o livro selecionado em tempo real.
Tendências
Linha selecionada: ponto médio do livro. Outras linhas: referências guardadas, possivelmente normalizadas; as variações de 24h usam o histórico guardado.
Condições da plataforma
Fonte: Kalshi
Estas condições são informativas; as operações simuladas da CoinRithm seguem regras próprias.
- Encerramento antecipado:
- Sim
- Prazo de liquidação:
- 30m (informativo)
Profundidade de mercado · Mike Thompson, 20+ pts
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Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Regras
If Mike Thompson wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 4th District by 10 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida via:the California Secretary of State
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Mike Thompson minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Mike Thompson if Mike Thompson wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Mike Thompson loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Mike Thompson runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Mike Thompson will be summed. If Mike Thompson wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Mike Thompson loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Mike Thompson ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Mike Thompson is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
Regras de cada resultado
- Mike Thompson, 20+ pts
- If Mike Thompson wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 4th District by 20 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Mike Thompson, 10+ pts
- If Mike Thompson wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 4th District by 10 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Mike Thompson, 2+ pts
- If Mike Thompson wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 4th District by 2 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Mike Thompson, 1+ pts
- If Mike Thompson wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 4th District by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Mike Thompson, 5+ pts
- If Mike Thompson wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 4th District by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Mike Thompson, 15+ pts
- If Mike Thompson wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 4th District by 15 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Mike Thompson, 25+ pts
- If Mike Thompson wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 4th District by 25 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Mike Thompson, 30+ pts
- If Mike Thompson wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 4th District by 30 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
