Huidige impliciete kans
Nee 99%
Marktkwaliteit
≤49 / 100
Lage kwaliteit24u volume
—
Liquiditeit
€ 20,1K
Gemiddelde liquiditeitBied / Laat
0.4% / 1.0%
Spread
0.6 pt
Strakke spreadReacties
0
7d wijziging
-1.6 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 11 minuten geleden
10 jun 26, 16:29 UTC2 okt 26, 03:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?
Manifold MarketsAnother US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
PolymarketOn which dates will the US government be shutdown?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a government shutdown before January 2027?
Manifold MarketsUS government budget balance in 2026
KalshiChina’s government budget balance in 2026
KalshiRegels
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
- A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
- A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
- Partial shutdowns qualify.
Vergelijking van voorspellingsbronnen
Open markten
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 91 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,7 mln.
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 569,7K
- 24u volume
- € 47,4K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 359,2K
- 24u volume
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt94%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-6.0pt90%
- Above -4.5% of GDP80%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 16,4K
KALSHIGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.0% of GDP-1.0pt96%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-8.0pt86%
- Above -4.0% of GDP+1.0pt51%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes-3.0pt22%
- Totaal volume
- € 314,7K
- 24u volume
- € 9,5K
- CPI core in August
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- US recession by end of 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Recession this year?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Government shutdown by October 1??
- Polymarket prijst No op 99% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Government shutdown by October 1? afgewikkeld?
- Government shutdown by October 1? wordt naar verwachting op 2 oktober 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Government shutdown by October 1? afgewikkeld?
- Polymarket wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Waar wordt Government shutdown by October 1? nog meer aangeboden?
- Dezelfde vraag wordt ook aangeboden op Manifold Markets, Kalshi.