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  3. Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?

Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?

PolitiekOne-OffEconomieUS PoliticsVerkiezing3mnd
KalshiKalshiBeschikbaarheid controlerenKYC vereist2% kosten
Huidige impliciete kans
Ja
Ja 37%
Marktkwaliteit

49 / 100

Lage kwaliteit
24u volume

€ 2,5

Liquiditeit

€ 3,6

Lage liquiditeit
Bied / Laat

36.0% / 37.0%

Spread

2.8%

Strakke spread
Marktdata

Bijgewerkt 3 minuten geleden

9 jun 26, 20:301 okt 26, 14:00

Trends

Uitkomst24uKans

Gekozen uitkomst

Yes37%

Regels

If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable.
  • Examples that would resolve the market to Yes:
  • OMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown," which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026 OPM posts a current operating status that indicates that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency"
  • Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes:
  • A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations Government closures or operating status changes resulting from Federal holidays, inclement weather, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations

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Actief in deze onderwerpen

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Regels

If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable.
  • Examples that would resolve the market to Yes:
  • OMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown," which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026 OPM posts a current operating status that indicates that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency"
  • Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes:
  • A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations Government closures or operating status changes resulting from Federal holidays, inclement weather, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations