Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 55.5%
Voorspellers
11
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 19 uur geleden
Verouderd13 mei 26, 08:16 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
PolymarketOn which dates will the US government be shutdown?
Manifold Markets(5X multiplied) Will there be a 48 hour government shutdown before 2027?
Manifold MarketsGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
KalshiUS government shutdown on October 1st 2026?
Manifold MarketsGovernment shutdown by October 1?
PolymarketRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if any part of the United States federal government shuts down due to a lapse in appropriations at any point before 12:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027.
- Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
- A "shutdown" is defined as a formal cessation of non-essential government operations caused by the failure of Congress to pass, and the President to sign, necessary appropriations legislation (continuing resolutions or full-year budgets).
- Official confirmation from sources such as the U.S. Senate Committee on Appropriations or major news outlets (e.g., AP, Reuters, Bloomberg) confirming that federal agencies have initiated shutdown procedures will be used to resolve the market.
- If a shutdown occurs but is resolved within the same day without a significant disruption to non-essential services, the market will still resolve YES if an official lapse in appropriations was acknowledged by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB).
Open markten
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-1.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 90,2 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,3 mln.
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 358,5K
- 24u volume
- € 35,6K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 554,3K
- 24u volume
- € 33,8K
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No77%
- Yes-1.0pt23%
- Totaal volume
- € 314,7K
- 24u volume
- € 11K
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+3.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-4.0pt32%
+8 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 17,7K
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.3%+1.0pt98%
- Above -0.4%97%
- Above -0.2%+1.0pt96%
+8 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 76K
- 24u volume
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Recession this year?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?
- Wisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will there be a government shutdown before January 2027??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 56% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will there be a government shutdown before January 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Will there be a government shutdown before January 2027? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will there be a government shutdown before January 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution criteria