Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 96.1%
Voorspellers
41
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 39 minuten geleden
13 feb 26, 19:20 UTC30 sep 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Government shutdown by October 1?
PolymarketAnother US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
PolymarketOn which dates will the US government be shutdown?
Manifold MarketsUS Average Gas Price Is $4.000 or more on October 1st 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS announces another drawdown of Strategic Petroleum Reserve before October 1st
Manifold MarketsUS government budget balance in 2026
KalshiRegels
Resolves YES iff the US Office of Personnel Management announces a federal government shutdown (including a partial shutdown) due to a lapse in appropriations on the operating status page by 11:59pm ET on October 1st, 2026.
- (stole criteria from @brod's market)
- NOTE: This market is asking about the gov shutdown for government funding due to expire on Sep 31, 2026.
- The DHS partial shutdown in Feb 2026 is not relevant for this market.
Vergelijking van voorspellingsbronnen
Open markten
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 89,9 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,7 mln.
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 541,2K
- 24u volume
- € 30,7K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 334,2K
- 24u volume
- € 12,8K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 10,7K
- 24u volume
- € 10,7K
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Totaal volume
- € 612,5K
- 24u volume
- € 6,9K
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Totaal volume
- € 2,9 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 5,3K
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor US government shutdown on October 1st 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 96% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt US government shutdown on October 1st 2026? afgewikkeld?
- US government shutdown on October 1st 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 30 september 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt US government shutdown on October 1st 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves YES iff the US Office of Personnel Management announces a federal government shutdown (including a partial shutdown) due to a lapse in appropriations on the operating status page by 11:59pm ET on October 1st, 2026.
- Waar wordt US government shutdown on October 1st 2026? nog meer aangeboden?
- Dezelfde vraag wordt ook aangeboden op Polymarket, Kalshi.