Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 59.9%
Voorspellers
22
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 6 uur geleden
Verouderd31 dec 22, 19:26 UTC31 dec 50, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
What will be the next elementary particle discovered?
Manifold MarketsDid humanity discover life on K2-18b?
Manifold MarketsWill we be able to create or discover something that surpasses the speed of light by 2051?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegels
I will resolve YES if a ≥5 sigma result is found (or composite of multiple results, etc), and otherwise resolve NO at close
Open markten
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 226,3K
- 24u volume
- € 125,2K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 28,6 mln.
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 108,3K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Totaal volume
- € 1,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 5,2K
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will we discover a new, (believed to be) non-composite particle by 2050??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 60% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will we discover a new, (believed to be) non-composite particle by 2050? afgewikkeld?
- Will we discover a new, (believed to be) non-composite particle by 2050? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2050 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will we discover a new, (believed to be) non-composite particle by 2050? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: I will resolve YES if a ≥5 sigma result is found (or composite of multiple results, etc), and otherwise resolve NO at close