Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 93.2%
Voorspellers
53
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 15 uur geleden
Verouderd30 mrt 25, 18:53 UTC31 mrt 27, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Macrogevoelige Assets
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Regels
Resolves YES if there are two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, with the starting quarter between the last quarter of 2025 and end of 2026.
- Otherwise NO.
- Resolves according to BEA data, 3rd estimate.
- See https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
- May be provisionally resolved based on BEA 1st estimate, but the final resolution will be based on 3rd estimate.
- In case BEA changes the way estimates are released or revised, resolves based on the latest official estimate as of 4 months after the end of the quarter.
Open markten
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-1.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 90,2 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,3 mln.
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 358,5K
- 24u volume
- € 35,6K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 554,3K
- 24u volume
- € 33,8K
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No77%
- Yes-1.0pt23%
- Totaal volume
- € 314,7K
- 24u volume
- € 11K
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+3.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-4.0pt32%
+8 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 17,7K
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.3%+1.0pt98%
- Above -0.4%97%
- Above -0.2%+1.0pt96%
+8 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 76K
- 24u volume
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Recession this year?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?
- Wisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
Gerelateerde crypto's
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will the US experience a recession during 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 93% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will the US experience a recession during 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Will the US experience a recession during 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 31 maart 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will the US experience a recession during 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves YES if there are two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, with the starting quarter between the last quarter of 2025 and end of 2026.