LimitlessBeschikbaarheid controlerenGeen KYCBeperkt geverifieerde gegevensHuidige impliciete kansJa 10.9%
Marktkwaliteit
28 / 100
Lage kwaliteit24u volume
€ 0
Liquiditeit
€ 0
Lage liquiditeitBied / Laat
-
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 22 minuten geleden
7 jan 26, 16:441 feb 27, 4:59
Trends
Alleen virtueel geld, geen echt geldGeen financieel advies
Gekozen uitkomst
Yes11%
Platforms vergelijken· No
Gerangschikt op marktkwaliteit, dan liquiditeit en 24-uursvolume| Platform | Kwaliteit | Kans | vs. referentie | Volume 24u | Liquiditeit | Actualiteit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBeste algemeen79% overeenkomst · auto | Gemiddeld | 88% | +76pt | € 335,9 | € 16,9K | 22 minuten geleden | Openen → |
| LimitlessDeze pagina | Laag | 89% | +77pt | € 0 | € 0 | 22 minuten geleden | |
 Manifold Markets82% overeenkomst · geverifieerd | — | 88% | +76pt | — | — | eergisteren | Openen → |
Ook beschikbaar op Manifold Markets
US recession in 2026?
5mnd
88.4%
11.6%
Gemeenschapsvoorspelling134 voorspellersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSOok beschikbaar op Polymarket
US recession by end of 2026?
6mnd
88%
12%
52 • Gemiddelde kwaliteitBrede spreadGemiddelde liquiditeit
Totaal volume€ 1,5 mln.
24u volume€ 335,9
POLYMARKETRegels
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
- The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered.
- For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".
- If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Vergelijkingsgegevens zijn alleen informatief. Prijzen en liquiditeit kunnen variëren.
Volumetrend
$0.006 jul21d aan data26 jul
Macrogevoelige Assets
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POLYMARKET[Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?
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MANIFOLD MARKETSActief in deze onderwerpen
Regels
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
- The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered.
- For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".
- If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product