LimitlessBeschikbaarheid controlerenGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGrof gekalibreerdHuidige impliciete kans
Nee 95%
Marktkwaliteit
30 / 100
Lage kwaliteit24u volume
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Liquiditeit
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Liquiditeit onbekendMarktdata
Bijgewerkt 6 minuten geleden
7 jan 26, 16:44 UTC1 feb 27, 04:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Regels
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
- The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered.
- For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".
- If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Vergelijking van voorspellingsbronnen
2 handelsplatforms prijzen deze markt momenteel. De liquiditeitsgewogen referentiekans van CoinRithm voor CoinRithm-referentie is 8%. De noteringen lopen ongeveer 3 procentpunten uiteen.
CoinRithm-referentie 8% · 2 platforms · 3 pt spreiding tussen venues
Open markten
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-1.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 90,2 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,3 mln.
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 358,5K
- 24u volume
- € 35,6K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 554,3K
- 24u volume
- € 33,8K
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No77%
- Yes-1.0pt23%
- Totaal volume
- € 314,7K
- 24u volume
- € 11K
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+3.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-4.0pt32%
+8 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 17,7K
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.3%+1.0pt98%
- Above -0.4%97%
- Above -0.2%+1.0pt96%
+8 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 76K
- 24u volume
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Recession this year?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?
- Wisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor US recession by end of 2026??
- Limitless prijst No op 95% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt US recession by end of 2026? afgewikkeld?
- US recession by end of 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 1 februari 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt US recession by end of 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Limitless wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: <p>This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:</p><ol><li>The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).</li><li>The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.</li></ol><p>Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".</p><p>Note that advance estimates will be considered.
- Waar wordt US recession by end of 2026? nog meer aangeboden?
- Dezelfde vraag wordt ook aangeboden op Manifold Markets, Futuur, Polymarket.