Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 59.3%
Voorspellers
28
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 3 minuten geleden
12 jan 24, 22:52 UTC2 jan 50, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?
Manifold MarketsWill Artificial intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2050?
Manifold MarketsBy the end of what year will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
KalshiRegels
EDIT: fixing resolution criteria directionality about amateurs
- The Millennium Prize Problems are seven famous open problems in math, all listed together in 2000.
- One was solved; as of 2024, six remain.
- Will the next one be solved by an amateur? This market resolves YES if the very next problem to be solved is solved by an amateur, and NO otherwise.
- The close date will be extended as needed.
- For the purpose of this market:
Open markten
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 211K
- 24u volume
- € 110,5K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 28,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 21,3K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Totaal volume
- € 1,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 5,2K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by an amateur??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 59% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by an amateur? afgewikkeld?
- Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by an amateur? wordt naar verwachting op 2 januari 2050 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by an amateur? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: EDIT: fixing resolution criteria directionality about amateurs